Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, February 20th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, extending the recent favorable momentum. Stocks are showing minor losses but calm with the Dow down 5 points and the Nasdaq down 12 points. The bond market is currently up 9/32 (1.53%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

9/32


Bonds


30 yr - 1.53%

5


Dow


29,342

12


NASDAQ


9,805

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Neutral


Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

Yesterday afternoon's release of the minutes from the January 29-30th FOMC meeting failed to yield any significant surprises. They showed that Fed members expect the economy to continue to grow at a moderate pace and that their current position on short-term interest rates should remain status quo for the foreseeable future. There was a consensus that the Coronavirus and its impact on the global economies is something that they will stay focused on, looking for an impact on our economy. Overall, there was nothing in the minutes that was alarming or worthy of being joyous about. They had a minimal impact on bond trading and mortgage rates.

Medium


Negative


Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

January's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) were posted at 10:00 AM ET, revealing a 0.8% increase that exceeded expectations. The rise means the indicators are predicting economic growth over the next several months. That makes the data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates, but the data has had no impact on this morning’s trading.

Medium


Unknown


Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

The week closes tomorrow with the release of January's Existing Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET. The National Association of Realtors will give us this data, which tracks home resales throughout the country. It is expected to show a decline in sales of existing homes, meaning the housing sector softened last month. Ideally, the bond market would like to see a sizable decline in sales because weak housing makes broader economic growth more difficult. Since long-term securities such as mortgage bonds tend to thrive during weaker economic conditions, weak housing numbers would be good news for mortgage rates.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.